The bear market is not over yet. But according to Glassnode, various metrics indicate that Bitcoin’s capitulation has already happened.
What does the realized price metric indicate for Bitcoin?
When will the crypto bear market end? Investors continue to experience the current crypto winter. They have also witnessed the death of multiple protocols and mutual funds over the past few months. This is the question these investors are asking. cryptocoin.comThis week, Bitcoin (BTC) is again testing resistance at its 200-week moving average. The real challenge is whether he can go higher in the face of multiple headwinds. Or if the price will return to the range it has been trapped in since early June.
On-chain market information company Glassnode has released its latest newsletter. As a result, “duration” is the main difference between the current bear market and previous cycles. Additionally, many on-chain metrics can now be compared to these historical drawbacks. One metric that has proven to be a reliable indicator of bear market lows is realized price. This metric relates the value of all Bitcoins at the price at which they were purchased to the number of BTCs in circulation.
As the chart above shows, aside from the sudden crash in March 2020, Bitcoin has been trading below its price for a long time in bear markets. Glassnode explains:
The average time spent below the real price is 197 days. In the current market for comparison, this period is only 35 days.
This is a sign that predictions for the end of the current crypto winter are premature. Because historical data shows that the market has several months of sideways price action before the next big uptrend.
Will the bottom be closer to $14,000 for Bitcoin?
What traders need to pay attention to in order to understand the end of winter. In this regard, Glassnode highlights Delta price and Equilibrium price as “on-chain price patterns that tend to pull spot prices during late bearish stages.”
As shown in the chart above, the previous major bear market lows were established after a “short-term wick towards Delta price” highlighted in green. A similar move in the recent market shows BTC maintaining a low of around $14,215. These bearish periods also saw the price of BTC in an accumulation range “between the balanced price (low range) and the actual price (high range)”. And that’s where the price is right now.
One of the classic signs of the end of the bear market was a massive capitulation event that exhausted the last remaining sellers. Some still wonder if this really happened. In June, on-chain activity fell to $17,600. Glassnode points out that this is a possible sign that the surrender did indeed take place.
There was a total volume of 9,216 million BTC holding an unrealized loss as BTC fell to $17,600. After the June 18 sellout event and the month-long consolidation price spike to $21,200, that volume has now fallen to 7.68 million BTC. Glassnode comments:
This shows that 1,539 million BTC was last traded between $17.6k and $21.2k (on a cost basis). It also indicates that around 8% of the circulating supply in this price range has changed hands.
There is other evidence that the surrender has already taken place. It was the “incredible volume of BTC” that was locked in a loss between May and July.
Terra’s collapse caused a total of $27.77 billion in losses. On June 18, the fall of the 2017 cycle below the ATH level resulted in a total loss of $35.5 billion.
Is this the end of the bear market?
There is one final metric that indicates surrender has already occurred. Adjusted Output Profit Ratio (aSPORT), which compares the value of outputs when they are spent with their value when they are created.
According to Glassnode, when profitability drops (as depicted by the blue arrows), investors will see massive losses leading to “one last moment of capitulation cascade” highlighted in red. Glassnode has this to say about it:
At the end of the market, the seller reaches exhaustion. Then prices start to recover. Finally, investors’ pain is beginning to subside.
He also touches another point to confirm that the capitulation has taken place and that the accumulation continues. Glassnode says that for this, the aSOPR value should ideally be greater than 1.0.
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