RESEARCH KUTAY KORAP/BLOOMBERG HT

In the report shared by the Information and Communication Technologies Authority for the first quarter of 2022; In the first quarter of 2022, the number of 3G subscribers fell to 4 million 10,00170, while the number of 4.5G subscribers was 81 million 330,003,390. In the first quarter of 2022, the total amount of usage of mobile Internet was 2 million 596 thousand 27 TB. Compared to European countries, Turkey became the country with the highest number of mobile phone calls, with an average monthly mobile usage time of 546 minutes in first quarter of 2022.

As habits change with the pandemic in the telecommunications sector in Turkey; The work-from-home environment and increased data usage have had a positive impact on the industry. On the other hand, the depreciation of the Turkish lira and the high inflationary environment cannot affect the invoices at the same rate due to the subscribers of the contract.

In the period when the pandemic is starting to lag behind, a drop is observed on the data consumption side. In the transition period after the pandemic; The transition effect manifests itself with working from home, decreasing time spent at home and increasing mobility. As the best example of this process, decreasing number of subscribers on digital platforms such as Netflix and Amazon on the global side can be an indicator of data consumption. A significant drop in data consumption in Turkey is occurring across all telecom companies. However, since it is an engagement system, it is difficult to measure changes in data consumption before the engagement ends, but data usage is significantly reduced among short-term users. term or users whose commitments have expired.

Communication is the element that increases the least among the main items.

Because of the commitment agreements they have with their customers, telecom companies expect the customer’s commitment to be honored when it comes to bill increases.

In the inflationary environment in Turkey, which has been accentuated in the recent period, increases in many items have followed. According to the latest data shared by TURKSTAT, as the annual CPI in Turkey approaches 80%, “Communication” is where the lowest annual increase was recorded in the main expenditure items during the same period. . While the annual increase in the communications index was only 23.7%, the gap between the annual CPI and the communications index marked the highest level in its history at 55 points. While the gap between the CPI and the communications index between 2016 and 2020 was between 5 and 10 points, the magnitude of the divergence that began in July 2021 continues to widen. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) has stopped publishing the article basket to inflation data. Because of that; It is not possible to reach changes in sub items such as internet charges, phone call charges and mobile phone call charges.

In the first quarter of 2022, the number of prepaid mobile broadband subscribers was 20 million 726 thousand 480, and the number of postpaid mobile broadband subscribers was 48 million 928 thousand 444. In the first quarter of 2022, the monthly income per subscriber was 52.5 lira for Turkcell, 48.5 lira for Vodafone and 42.3 lira for TT Mobil.

According to the number of subscribers in the first quarter of 2022; We saw that Turkcell held a share of 41.3%, Vodafone 30.8% and TT Mobil 27.9%.

The continued increase in the weight of postpaid subscribers may indicate that the increased costs will be passed on to customers later on. This evolution is due to the inflation of the growth of the short-term turnover of the companies. below can stay. Looking at the first quarter of 2022, it was seen that 32% of mobile subscribers were prepaid and the rate of postpaid subscribers increased from 66.4% to 68% last year.

Telecommunications, the easiest way to have fun

TEB Investment also shared a note on the telecoms sector in its 2022 half-year outlook report. contractual rates in the first half. In the second half, we believe that the margin between inflation and revenue growth will narrow with price increases and the renewal of tariff contracts. On the other hand, telecommunications is the easiest and cheapest way to access entertainment, so we believe that demand for telecommunications products will remain high even in the unlikely scenario of a recession.The biggest risk for telecommunications companies continues to be the exchange rate fluctuations due to high foreign currency debt and investment needs.


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