The last day of the week marked by central bank decisions on interest rates, domestic agricultural input prices and the financial services confidence index will be watched. Leading Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data stands out overseas.
DAY STARTED RISE AFTER INTEREST DECISIONS
After the European Central Bank raised the interest rate by 50 basis points, beating expectations, and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey kept the policy rate constant at 14%, the dollar/TL, which n observed no significant change, started this morning with a new high. The rate was close to 17.80 this morning and is now at 17.72.
EURO SEES 18.16 LIRA LEVELS
After seeing the 18.16 levels, the Euro/TL is currently balanced in the 18.05 region.
LEFT CENTRAL BANK FIXED AT 14 PER CENT
Despite inflation getting out of control, the Central Bank did not compromise its stance that it would not tighten monetary policy at the 7th meeting. The key rate is set at 14%. Obviously the market; In an environment where the current account balance is deteriorating and portfolio outflows continue, he does not believe that the rise in the exchange rate will be contained and inflation will be reduced by policies that encourage reading, while expansionary monetary, fiscal and income policies are implemented. In the note shared after JP Morgan’s interest rate meeting, the CBRT will continue to take macroprudential measures that we believe are of questionable effectiveness in fighting inflation.
HOW WILL THE ECB USE THE NEW CRISIS TOOL?
The European Central Bank, which ended the negative interest period, also approved the Transfer Insurance Mechanism (TPI). The transmission protection instrument will not be a priority instrument. It will be activated in monetary transmission disorders. In other words, it is actually a valid crisis tool for sickness situations. The ECB, through no fault of its own, will buy government bonds from European countries whose borrowing costs are rising rapidly. However, for this, this country must meet the conditions: compliance with the EU financial framework, absence of serious macroeconomic imbalances, sound and sustainable macroeconomic policies. The ECB does not see the need to launch a new program to purchase bonds for Italy at the moment. Meanwhile, JPMorgan maintains its expectation that the ECB will raise interest rates by 125 basis points this year.
THE PARITY IS AT LEVEL 1.018 THIS MORNING
The euro/dollar climbed to 1.027s after the ECB raised interest rates 50 basis points above expectations. The rise is more cautious due to Fed expectations. The pair is at 1.018 this morning. In case of movement above 1.0275, it is believed that there may be a correct reaction towards 1.04. It came at the $1708 level, which went down to the 1680 level yesterday, and then turned into a resistance position. Analysts are of the view that it would be premature to expect the reactions to be permanent without seeing a hold on the 1722 resistance.
OIL PRICES ARE UP
Oil prices are recovering in the new day after yesterday’s sharp drop. Brent oil is heading towards $105.
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