There is no point in jumping for joy as the consumer confidence index rose in July compared to June.
✔ The effect of the increase in wages due to the difference in inflation and the increase in wages is significant. The same thing happened with the stove.
✔ Despite July’s increase, the average for the first seven months of this year is the lowest since 2004.
✔ The limit to be optimistic about the economy is 100. The latest index value is 68. Citizens are still far from optimism.
The consumer confidence index, which was created from the results of the survey conducted with the cooperation of TURKSTAT and the Central Bank, rose to 68 in July after falling to the historic low of 63.4 in June ; a round of applause, excitement, a mood to get better so don’t ask!
Wait, be calm! No significant change. It’s as if the consumer confidence index was rising for the first time… This index rises and falls from time to time; It is necessary to think a little about why there was an increase in July.
– In July, the minimum wage was increased by almost 30%.
– Similarly, BağKur workers and pensioners received an inflation difference of just over 42%.
– The incomes of civil servants and pensioners increased by almost 42%, including the difference in inflation plus the increase.
These increases have naturally given rise to the perception that things are improving and that the economic situation is improving among minimum wage workers, civil servants and retirees. It’s perfectly normal. In fact, even if the situation is worse than three or five months ago, the sudden increase in money in the pocket improves the citizen’s perception.
A similar increase was seen in January this year. The consumer confidence index, which was 68.9 in December, rose to 73.2 in January. Again, the same developments took place; There was an increase in wages and salaries in terms of the difference in inflation and increase.
Therefore, looking at this increase in July, the reason for which is very clear, “How nice, the consumer has started to trust the economy” That would not be a correct assessment.
A month already doesn’t matter
If the consumer confidence index drops a lot or increases a lot during a month; We shouldn’t attach too much meaning to it anyway.
A rapid increase can occur in any month for reasons similar to July, or the reverse can occur in any month due to non-permanent negativity.
It is not the direction in a few months that counts.
So you shouldn’t get stuck in a tree; you have to look in the forest…
The consumer confidence index has been created since 2004, and the graph showing the period from this year to this month reveals the situation very clearly. Where are we going on an annual average? everything on the map…
Let’s see where the trend is going?
Is consumer confidence increasing or decreasing as a general trend?
The index, which is formed on the average of the first seven months of this year, is at the level of 69. This is the first time that it has been below 70 since 2004, and even the number of years in below 80 (2019, 2021, 2022) is only three!
You “The consumer has started to trust the economy” What are you celebrating?
This is the worst year in 19 years. Not to mention the increase in a month. After all, the reason is obvious.
We are so far from being optimistic.
Since the consumer confidence index rose in July compared to June, we didn’t do a halay dance!
Let’s say that this increase is permanent…
Let’s say this increase shows that the bad days are over.
How should the consumer confidence index be read, okay?
This index takes values between zero and 200. Values below 100 belong to the consumer, that is to say to the citizen. lack of confidence in the economy shows.
Values between 100 and 200 trust the economy is a sign of it.
When the index is 100, the citizen contributes to the economy. neither trust nor mistrust means. The latest data is for July and what is the index; 68!
So how much should this index increase to reach the limit of optimism? exactly 47%!
That’s good, but is it possible to increase this ratio? Nope! Especially not in this period and in the next three or five years.
In other words, there is no need to ring a bell just because the consumer confidence index has gone up for a month, or to make decisions when there is a dip in a month. …
Do like the referees when there is a fight between the players! Step back a bit and see the big picture!
#consumer #confidence #forest #tree